Tropical Storm KAREN

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 119N  439W 34 68  13(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 119N  439W 50 20  12(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 12 119N  439W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 130N  461W 34  3  55(58)  12(70)   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 24 130N  461W 50  X  22(22)  11(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 130N  461W 64  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 143N  480W 34  1  10(11)  41(52)   8(60)   4(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 36 143N  480W 50  X   2( 2)  20(22)   8(30)   2(32)   X(32)   1(33)
 36 143N  480W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 48 156N  494W 34  X   2( 2)  21(23)  20(43)  10(53)   2(55)   X(55)
 48 156N  494W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   6(24)   X(24)   1(25)
 48 156N  494W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 180N  515W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  20(32)   7(39)   3(42)
 72 180N  515W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   1(17)
 72 180N  515W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
 96 200N  530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  11(26)   4(30)
 96 200N  530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)
 96 200N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 225N  550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)
120 225N  550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 225N  550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     60      65      65      60      55      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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