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Tropical Depression HUMBERTO (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES
AND FORT POLK WSR-88D RADARS SHOW THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THE CYCLONE IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. 
THUS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
IN ABOUT 48 HR.  

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 040/10.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AND THE FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO TO TURN SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...POSSIBLY RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...IT IS LIKELY THE REMNANTS WILL BE
TOO WEAK TO RE-GENERATE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HUMBERTO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 31.4N  92.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 32.9N  88.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 32.9N  86.4W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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