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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 145N 488W 34 23 19(42) 4(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) 1(49)
12 145N 488W 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
12 145N 488W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 148N 496W 34 8 26(34) 10(44) 2(46) 2(48) X(48) 1(49)
24 148N 496W 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
24 148N 496W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 150N 505W 34 1 17(18) 18(36) 6(42) 3(45) 1(46) 1(47)
36 150N 505W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
36 150N 505W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 155N 515W 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 10(33) 6(39) 1(40) 1(41)
48 155N 515W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
48 155N 515W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 165N 540W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 14(22) 4(26) 2(28)
72 165N 540W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
72 165N 540W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 175N 570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17)
96 175N 570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
96 175N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 190N 600W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
120 190N 600W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
120 190N 600W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 40 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC