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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 136N  459W 34 23  20(43)   3(46)   1(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 12 136N  459W 50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 12 136N  459W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 140N  473W 34  3  36(39)  10(49)   3(52)   3(55)   1(56)   X(56)
 24 140N  473W 50  X   7( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   1(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 24 140N  473W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 143N  484W 34  1  19(20)  23(43)   6(49)   5(54)   2(56)   1(57)
 36 143N  484W 50  X   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 36 143N  484W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 146N  495W 34  X   6( 6)  20(26)  13(39)   8(47)   4(51)   1(52)
 48 146N  495W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   6(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 48 146N  495W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 151N  514W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)  16(33)   8(41)   2(43)
 72 151N  514W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   1(16)
 72 151N  514W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 160N  545W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  13(25)   5(30)
 96 160N  545W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 96 160N  545W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 170N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)
120 170N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
120 170N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     45      50      55      60      60      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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