Tropical Depression EIGHT
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 136N 459W 34 23 20(43) 3(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
12 136N 459W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
12 136N 459W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 140N 473W 34 3 36(39) 10(49) 3(52) 3(55) 1(56) X(56)
24 140N 473W 50 X 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17)
24 140N 473W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 143N 484W 34 1 19(20) 23(43) 6(49) 5(54) 2(56) 1(57)
36 143N 484W 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19)
36 143N 484W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 146N 495W 34 X 6( 6) 20(26) 13(39) 8(47) 4(51) 1(52)
48 146N 495W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18)
48 146N 495W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
72 151N 514W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 16(33) 8(41) 2(43)
72 151N 514W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16)
72 151N 514W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
96 160N 545W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 5(30)
96 160N 545W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
96 160N 545W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
120 170N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19)
120 170N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
120 170N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 45 50 55 60 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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