Hurricane FELIX

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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SINCE 21Z...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. AN 18Z MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAD FORMED...AND OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DECAYED IN INFRARED IMAGES AND
THE OUTER FEATURE IS NOW MORE PROMINENT.  RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...UP TO T6.7...BUT I'M
GUESSING THAT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT YET
RECOVERED FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE WIND
FIELD.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT...WITH SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND
05Z.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17...AS FELIX CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THERE IS A LITTLE LESS RIDGING AHEAD OF FELIX AND SO SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FELIX BASICALLY ON TRACK. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FELIX OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH ONLY
THE 12Z UKMET AND 18Z NOGAPS TAKING FELIX BACK OVER WATER. THE 18Z
UKMET...WHICH IS AVAILABLE ONLY OUT TO 48 HOURS...IS ALSO A LITTLE
SOUTH OF ITS EARLIER RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW KEEPS FELIX
ENTIRELY OVER LAND.  AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE
TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SHARPLY
DOWNWARD AFTER 12 HOURS...AND IF THE TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES THE
SMALL CIRCULATION OF FELIX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN
SHOWN BELOW. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 14.4N  81.1W   115 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.6N  83.5W   125 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.1N  85.9W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.7N  88.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 16.4N  90.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  97.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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