Hurricane FELIX

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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR
WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN.  THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT
COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE
WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.
HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY
WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA
SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND.  THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND.  SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER
CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17
KT.  THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX.  THIS REGIME
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME WEAKENING.  THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 14.3N  79.5W   115 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.5N  81.9W   120 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.9N  84.5W    90 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N  86.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.2N  88.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.6N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  96.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  99.5W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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