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Tropical Storm ERIN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007               
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  2   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 19   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 32   4(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 33   9(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 56   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 274N  972W 34 38   6(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 274N  972W 50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 274N  972W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 284N  990W 34  4  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 24 284N  990W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 284N  990W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 293N 1006W 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 36 293N 1006W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 36 293N 1006W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     30      20       0       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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