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Tropical Storm ERIN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007               
1530 UTC WED AUG 15 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1530Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 930W 34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  3   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  9   6(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  4  11(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  3  22(25)   5(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 23  26(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  4  26(30)   4(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  7   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 260N  955W 34 35  19(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 12 260N  955W 50  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 260N  955W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 265N  975W 34  4  35(39)   6(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 265N  975W 50  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 265N  975W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 270N  990W 34  X  19(19)   6(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 270N  990W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 270N  990W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 285N 1005W 34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 285N 1005W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 285N 1005W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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