Tropical Storm ERIN

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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
THESE WINDS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...AND THAT
REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  AT PRESENT...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COVER ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL AREA ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT OVER THE CENTER...AND
THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE.  AT LANDFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...RATHER THAN A WIND EVENT. 

ALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A SHORT-TERM
WESTWARD JOG...A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/12.  A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 26.5N  95.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 27.4N  97.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 28.4N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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