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HURRICANE DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125
KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) X(35)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 16(35) X(35)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) X(31)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 30(70) 2(72) X(72)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 24(44) 1(45) X(45)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 46(74) 6(80) X(80) X(80)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 42(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 17(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 14(14) 20(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 12(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
CAMAGUEY 34 6 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 5 76(81) 10(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 48(48) 19(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 22(22) 17(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
MONTEGO BAY 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
MONTEGO BAY 50 61 18(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
MONTEGO BAY 64 15 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
KINGSTON 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGSTON 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
KINGSTON 64 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 175N 777W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 175N 777W 50 91 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
12 175N 777W 64 65 16(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
24 183N 812W 34 6 84(90) 6(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
24 183N 812W 50 1 72(73) 11(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
24 183N 812W 64 X 46(46) 15(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
36 190N 845W 34 X 14(14) 64(78) 10(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89)
36 190N 845W 50 X 3( 3) 49(52) 18(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
36 190N 845W 64 X X( X) 32(32) 14(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47)
48 199N 882W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 51(62) 15(77) 1(78) X(78)
48 199N 882W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 14(52) X(52) X(52)
48 199N 882W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29)
72 215N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 11(51) X(51)
72 215N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) X(28)
72 215N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15)
96 230N 1000W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17)
96 230N 1000W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
96 230N 1000W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 125 130 140 120 100 40 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC