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Hurricane DEAN (Text)

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HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  82.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  925 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE  85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  82.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  81.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N  85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  85SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N  88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N  92.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  75SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  75SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  82.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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