Hurricane DEAN

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HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007
 
AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
 
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  65.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE  75SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  65.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  65.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N  68.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N  71.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N  75.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N  78.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N  97.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  65.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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