Hurricane DEAN
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HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN
IS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD. A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT...
CORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE
ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.6N 96.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
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