000 ABPZ30 KNHC 011504 TWSEP MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 1 2006 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. AFTER A QUIET JUNE WHEN NO STORMS FORMED DURING THE MONTH...THE SECOND HALF OF JULY WAS QUITE ACTIVE WITH 4 NAMED STORMS... INCLUDING TWO MAJOR HURRICANES HAVING DEVELOPED...HURRICANE BUD...HURRICANE CARLOTTA...HURRICANE DANIEL...AND TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. IN ADDITION THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT IS NOW FABIO FORMED AT THE END OF THE MONTH. BUD DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 27 JUNE AND REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 7 JULY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED ALONG THE WAVE ON 9 JULY APPROXIMATELY 600 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ON 10 JULY 10 A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. INITIALLY...THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERED NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR BEGAN TO DECREASE THE FOLLOWING DAY...AND THE CYCLONE BEGAN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THAT EVENING. THE INTENSIFICATION CONTINUED ON 12 JULY...WITH BUD REACHING ITS ESTIMATED MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 110 KT EARLY ON 13 JULY. THEREAFTER...BUD BEGAN ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR WHICH INITIATED WEAKENING. BUD CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY ON 14 JULY. BUD LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION LATER THAT DAY AND DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. CARLOTTA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN ON 9 JULY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED EARLY ON 12 JULY ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY...BECOMING A HURRICANE THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT. ON 14 JULY...CARLOTTA WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS ITS CIRCULATION BEGAN TO SPREAD OVER COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH THE FOLLOWING DAY. BY LATE ON 15 JULY...HOWEVER...CARLOTTA BEGAN A SECOND AND FINAL WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER WATERS. BY 16 JULY...CARLOTTA HAD WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE DEGENERATED TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 JULY. DANIEL DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 30 JUNE. THE WAVE REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON 12 JULY AND SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION STARTING ON 15 JULY. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED FROM THE SYSTEM ON 17 JULY ABOUT 630 N MI S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE CYCLONE MOVED WESTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY AND A HURRICANE ON 18 JULY. DANIEL TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON 20 JULY AS IT BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON. IT REACHED AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KT...CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...ON 22 JULY ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. DANIEL TURNED WESTWARD ON 22 JULY...THEN RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT DAY. THIS MOTION BROUGHT DANIEL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH RESULTED IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE HURRICANE CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON 24 JULY WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KT. EMILIA FORMED EARLY IN 21 JULY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY STRENGTHENED AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM EMILIA THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. EMILIA WOBBLED BACK AND FORTH ABOUT A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND STEADILY STRENGTHENED TO 60 KT ON 23 JULY. AFTER PEAKING...EMILIA ENCOUNTERED UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS THE NEXT DAY... WHICH CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 45 KT BY 25 JULY. HOWEVER...BEFORE EMILIA REACHED COLDER WATER AND BEGAN ITS FINAL WEAKENING TREND...THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EMILIA QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIED TO 60 KT AGAIN THE NEXT DAY. EMILIA BRUSHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CAUSING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS. AFTER REACHING COLDER WATER LATE ON 26 JULY...EMILIA BEGAN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IT BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 27 JULY. THE SYSTEM TURNED WESTWARD AND DEGENERATED INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 290 MILES WEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUED SLOWLY WESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND (KT) DEATHS ------------------------------------------------------------------- H BUD 11-16 JUL 110 0 H CARLOTTA 12-17 JUL 75 0 H DANIEL 17-26 JUL 130 0 TS EMILIA 21-28 JUL 60 0 TS FABIO 31 JUL - 45 (AS OF 1 AUG) 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC) $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/RHOME
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Aug-2006 18:05:08 UTC