Tropical Depression SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
1500 UTC MON NOV 20 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 151N 1077W 34 17   7(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 12 151N 1077W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 151N 1077W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 154N 1090W 34  3  14(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 24 154N 1090W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 154N 1090W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 158N 1108W 34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 158N 1108W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 158N 1108W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 160N 1125W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 160N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 160N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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