Tropical Storm SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
2100 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 151N 1063W 34 15   8(23)   2(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 151N 1063W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 151N 1063W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 152N 1069W 34  6  11(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 24 152N 1069W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 152N 1069W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 154N 1079W 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 36 154N 1079W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 154N 1079W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 155N 1090W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 155N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 155N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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