Tropical Storm SERGIO
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
ACAPULCO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 146N 1030W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 146N 1030W 50 51 5(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
12 146N 1030W 64 7 X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 152N 1035W 34 48 19(67) 5(72) 3(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
24 152N 1035W 50 7 14(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
24 152N 1035W 64 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 159N 1044W 34 3 21(24) 22(46) 7(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55)
36 159N 1044W 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
36 159N 1044W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
48 167N 1054W 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) 13(36) 6(42) X(42) 1(43)
48 167N 1054W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11)
48 167N 1054W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 180N 1070W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 10(22) 3(25) X(25)
72 180N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 180N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 195N 1095W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
96 195N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 195N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 210N 1120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
120 210N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 210N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 50 50 50 40 30 25
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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