Hurricane SERGIO
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18)
MANZANILLO 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17)
L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 145N 1029W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 145N 1029W 50 55 7(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
12 145N 1029W 64 20 4(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
24 151N 1034W 34 58 19(77) 4(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84)
24 151N 1034W 50 10 22(32) 5(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
24 151N 1034W 64 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
36 158N 1042W 34 6 31(37) 17(54) 6(60) 3(63) 1(64) X(64)
36 158N 1042W 50 X 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
36 158N 1042W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 167N 1050W 34 1 9(10) 19(29) 13(42) 6(48) 1(49) X(49)
48 167N 1050W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
48 167N 1050W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 180N 1065W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 12(26) 3(29) 1(30)
72 180N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 180N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 195N 1085W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
96 195N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
96 195N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 215N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
120 215N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 215N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65 60 55 55 45 35 25
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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