Hurricane SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)  11(20)   2(22)   1(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   X( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   3(21)   X(21)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)
L CARDENAS     50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   2(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 145N 1028W 34 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 145N 1028W 50 53  10(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 12 145N 1028W 64 19   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 24 152N 1034W 34 48  27(75)   4(79)   2(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 152N 1034W 50  6  24(30)   6(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 24 152N 1034W 64  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 159N 1041W 34  4  35(39)  16(55)   6(61)   2(63)   X(63)   1(64)
 36 159N 1041W 50  X   8( 8)   9(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 159N 1041W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 170N 1050W 34  1   7( 8)  17(25)  14(39)   5(44)   2(46)   X(46)
 48 170N 1050W 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 170N 1050W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 195N 1065W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  14(20)   3(23)   2(25)
 72 195N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 195N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 210N 1085W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 96 210N 1085W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 210N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 220N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
120 220N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 220N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     60      55      50      45      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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