Hurricane SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
1500 UTC THU NOV 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   X(18)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)  14(27)   2(29)   X(29)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)  11(25)   1(26)   1(27)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   7(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   9(11)   5(16)   2(18)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 137N 1030W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 137N 1030W 50 76   8(84)   1(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 12 137N 1030W 64 44  13(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
 24 145N 1035W 34 67  20(87)   4(91)   1(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 145N 1035W 50 16  37(53)   7(60)   2(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 145N 1035W 64  3  23(26)   6(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 36 155N 1040W 34 10  41(51)  20(71)   5(76)   3(79)   X(79)   1(80)
 36 155N 1040W 50  1  15(16)  19(35)   6(41)   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 36 155N 1040W 64  X   5( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 165N 1050W 34  2  12(14)  25(39)  15(54)   9(63)   1(64)   X(64)
 48 165N 1050W 50  X   2( 2)   9(11)  11(22)   6(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 165N 1050W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 185N 1065W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)  19(36)   4(40)   1(41)
 72 185N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 72 185N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 200N 1075W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   5(23)   1(24)
 96 200N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 96 200N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 215N 1095W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
120 215N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
120 215N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     80      75      70      65      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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