Hurricane SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
0900 UTC THU NOV 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   X(16)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  15(24)   2(26)   1(27)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)  13(22)   2(24)   1(25)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   2( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   5(21)   1(22)   1(23)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   4(16)   1(17)   1(18)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 131N 1030W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 131N 1030W 50 78   8(86)   1(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 131N 1030W 64 45  12(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
 24 141N 1033W 34 61  25(86)   5(91)   1(92)   2(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 141N 1033W 50 12  38(50)   8(58)   3(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 24 141N 1033W 64  2  23(25)   7(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 36 150N 1039W 34  8  43(51)  20(71)   6(77)   3(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 36 150N 1039W 50  1  15(16)  20(36)   7(43)   2(45)   X(45)   1(46)
 36 150N 1039W 64  X   5( 5)  11(16)   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 159N 1048W 34  2  13(15)  27(42)  15(57)  10(67)   1(68)   1(69)
 48 159N 1048W 50  X   2( 2)  12(14)  11(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 159N 1048W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 180N 1065W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)  22(39)   5(44)   1(45)
 72 180N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 72 180N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 195N 1075W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  16(20)   7(27)   1(28)
 96 195N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 96 195N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 210N 1100W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
120 210N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
120 210N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     80      80      75      70      55      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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