Tropical Storm SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
0900 UTC WED NOV 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   7(21)   1(22)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   1(22)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)  12(22)   4(26)   1(27)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   9(17)   4(21)   X(21)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 125N 1040W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 125N 1040W 50 62  17(79)   2(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 125N 1040W 64 18  15(33)   3(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 24 131N 1037W 34 51  35(86)   3(89)   2(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 131N 1037W 50 14  37(51)   8(59)   2(61)   2(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 131N 1037W 64  5  21(26)   6(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 36 139N 1037W 34 10  45(55)  17(72)   8(80)   3(83)   X(83)   1(84)
 36 139N 1037W 50  2  16(18)  18(36)   8(44)   3(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 139N 1037W 64  X   7( 7)  10(17)   6(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 48 151N 1040W 34  1  10(11)  27(38)  17(55)  11(66)   2(68)   X(68)
 48 151N 1040W 50  X   2( 2)  11(13)  13(26)   7(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 48 151N 1040W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 165N 1045W 34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  20(32)  15(47)   6(53)   1(54)
 72 165N 1045W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   2(21)   X(21)
 72 165N 1045W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 180N 1055W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  15(24)   9(33)   2(35)
 96 180N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 96 180N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 190N 1065W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   8(19)   4(23)
120 190N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
120 190N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      80      75      65      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN