Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0900 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 132N 1050W 34 51 12(63) 2(65) 2(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69)
12 132N 1050W 50 5 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
12 132N 1050W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 136N 1055W 34 30 22(52) 7(59) 3(62) 3(65) X(65) 1(66)
24 136N 1055W 50 3 6( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
24 136N 1055W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 139N 1058W 34 14 26(40) 10(50) 6(56) 3(59) 2(61) X(61)
36 139N 1058W 50 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19)
36 139N 1058W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 144N 1061W 34 4 21(25) 13(38) 8(46) 7(53) 2(55) 1(56)
48 144N 1061W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18)
48 144N 1061W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 155N 1065W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 11(28) 10(38) 4(42) X(42)
72 155N 1065W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13)
72 155N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
96 165N 1070W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 12(26) 5(31) 1(32)
96 165N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
96 165N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
120 175N 1080W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 2(20)
120 175N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
120 175N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 55 55 50 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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