Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0500 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006
AT 0500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 134N 1052W 34 27 16(43) 3(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50)
12 134N 1052W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
12 134N 1052W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 140N 1058W 34 11 25(36) 7(43) 3(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49)
24 140N 1058W 50 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
24 140N 1058W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 145N 1062W 34 3 21(24) 12(36) 5(41) 4(45) X(45) 1(46)
36 145N 1062W 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
36 145N 1062W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 150N 1066W 34 1 11(12) 16(28) 6(34) 6(40) 1(41) X(41)
48 150N 1066W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
48 150N 1066W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 160N 1070W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 8(21) 7(28) 3(31) X(31)
72 160N 1070W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 160N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 170N 1075W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 3(20) X(20)
96 170N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 170N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 175N 1080W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16)
120 175N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
120 175N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 40 35 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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