Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
0300 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 102.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 103.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 102.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
 
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