ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST...BUT JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.0 AT 0600 UTC. VERY RECENTLY A LITTLE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0122 UTC SHOWED A FEW 30-KT VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER AND STRONGER BUT RAIN-INFLATED VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION. THESE DATA SUPPORT KEEPING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN ACCORDANCE WILL ALL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SERGIO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS...BUT ONE CANNOT BE SURE JUST HOW STUBBORN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN GIVING UP ITS DEEP CONVECTION. IT HAS NOT BEEN HARD TO FIND THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 250/4 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT PERHAPS MORE WESTERLY THAN THAT RECENTLY. AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GENERAL SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS PRESUMING THE REMNANT LOW WILL NO LONGER BE HINDERED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES PUSHING AGAINST THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 14.8N 106.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.8N 107.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.9N 108.1W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.4N 110.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Nov-2006 08:50:03 UTC