Tropical Storm SERGIO

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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
100 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SERGIO AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
ARE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND T2.0 FROM SAB.  AS A RESULT OF THE
NEW CONVECTIVE BURST...SERGIO WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND
WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR
SO...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3.  SERGIO IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-RIDGE WHICH HAS PUSHED
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF DAY.  AS A
RESULT OF THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF
SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE CONVECTION.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPINGED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO BE STEERED ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AS WELL AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 15.1N 105.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.4N 107.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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