ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 AFTER A BRIEF WANE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...A NEW SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T3.0 AND T2.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THAT OF THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPEDING THE WESTWARD MOTION SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WITH SERGIO REMAINING OVER 29C SSTS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE EFFECTS OF HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.7N 105.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.1N 105.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 106.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 111.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2006 02:30:03 UTC