ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 DESPITE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SERGIO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF ITS CIRCULATION TODAY. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 3.5. ASSUMING THAT SERGIO'S POSITION IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN 45 KT AT THE LOW END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. SERGIO REMAINS OVER QUITE WARM WATER AND A CONDUCIVE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT FORECAST IN THE LAST ADVISORY. SERGIO IS MOVING 310/6 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL LOOP. A 1320 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A CONTRACTION OF THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII TO BE ANALYZED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.6N 104.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 16.5N 106.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 107.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 108.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Nov-2006 20:45:03 UTC