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Tropical Storm SERGIO

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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT 
EARLIER TODAY THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...NEW DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL
SUPPORT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM...IT AINT ALL
ABOUT THE OCEAN. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SERGIO RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN OR RESTRENGTHEN SERGIO BUT THIS SOLUTION IS
HARD TO ACCEPT AT THIS TIME WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN THE
WIND SHEAR.  THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IF...UNEXPECTETLY...THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT.
 
SERGIO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE HAS MATERIALIZED AND THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE SERGIO ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 105.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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