ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006 SERGIO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAST ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WINDS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAKING A LITTLE BIT OF A COMEBACK AND THE CYCLONE HAS REDEVELOPED A CDO CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0/5.0 OR 65 KT/90 KT. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 010/5. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A NORTHWARD MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST VARIES UPON THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. BECAUSE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO....A PUBLIC ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.6N 102.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 20:40:04 UTC