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Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006
 
SERGIO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAST
ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WINDS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAKING A LITTLE BIT OF A COMEBACK
AND THE CYCLONE HAS REDEVELOPED A CDO CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0/5.0 OR 65 KT/90
KT.  OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS
AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.    

SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AT 010/5.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A NORTHWARD
MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST
VARIES UPON THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE THE CLOSEST TO THE
COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL
OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. 

BECAUSE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO....A PUBLIC
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 13.6N 102.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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