ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY BUT IS WELL DEFINED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE EYE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUAL DECREASE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SERGIO COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. SERGIO HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...SERGIO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND AT THIS TIME...IT KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON A PATH PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST..AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...IS STILL POSSIBLE. SO MEXICO STAY TUNED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.9N 103.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 14:40:04 UTC