Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
BUT IS WELL DEFINED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE EYE APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING
THAT THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUAL DECREASE OF DVORAK
T-NUMBERS.  SERGIO COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT
12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. 

SERGIO HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...SERGIO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND AT THIS TIME...IT KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON
A PATH PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST..AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...IS STILL POSSIBLE. SO MEXICO STAY
TUNED.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 12.9N 103.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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