Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
100 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006
 
SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED A TYPICAL HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A
DISTINCT BUT SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS SERGIO ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 3
DAYS. 

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TAKING A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE
SOUTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A VERY SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT
BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CABO CORRIENTES ON MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 4 TO 5
DAYS.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 12.0N 103.6W    95 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W   105 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W   100 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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