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Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
900 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT THAT SERGIO HAS
INTENSIFIED TO 85 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PINHOLE EYE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-T-NUMBERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN A CONSERVATIVELY ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND THE INITIAL AND
12 HOUR WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED.  NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK
IS INDICATED.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1700Z 12.1N 103.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.2N 103.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
 
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