ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006 EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED. QUIKSCAT DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM A 1300 UTC OVERPASS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM BARELY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS AT THIS STAGE...THE QUIKSCAT DATA ARE INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS...WITH RETRIEVED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND JUST A FEW 35-KT WINDS BENEATH THE CONVECTION THAT COULD EASILY BE RAIN-INFLATED. GIVEN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP A LESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD APPEAR TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 260/5...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITHIN THE ELONGATED TROUGH. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND PERHAPS INDUCE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.3N 113.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 12.5N 113.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 13.3N 114.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 114.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 114.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 15.3N 114.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/1200Z 15.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Nov-2006 20:08:11 UTC