Tropical Depression ROSA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006               
0300 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 165N 1055W 34 16   6(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 12 165N 1055W 50  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 165N 1055W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 169N 1057W 34 12   7(19)   2(21)   1(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 24 169N 1057W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 169N 1057W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 173N 1060W 34  4   9(13)   3(16)   1(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 36 173N 1060W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 173N 1060W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 178N 1064W 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 178N 1064W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 178N 1064W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 190N 1075W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 72 190N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 190N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      25      25      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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