ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006 THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED JUST AFTER 06 UTC HAS PERSISTED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO ROSA LIVES ON A LITTLE LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND NOT EXTENSIVE...HOWEVER...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THIS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS WEAKENING...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL FORECASTS ROSA TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THAT MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS FORECAST INTENSITY AND LOSES THE CIRCULATION SOONER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...ANTICIPATES ROSA TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. ROSA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE VERY QUICKLY...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 325/3. ONCE THE CONVECTION IS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY THE SHEAR...THE CENTER OF EX-ROSA WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED MORE WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN BETWEEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG BUT A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.1N 106.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 107.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.2N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Nov-2006 14:55:03 UTC