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Tropical Depression ROSA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
700 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED...SHEARED...TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  SHIP
A8GU7...QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR ACCURACY...REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10 KT WINDS WITH A 1009 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ABOUT 85 N MI
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE SHIP
REPORT AND THE 30 KT DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH
INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR...WEAKENING THE
DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LATEST FSU 
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIMILAR OUTCOME. 
 
IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIX THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/4...DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN
THE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  ROSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE/ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH
REFLECT A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 16.1N 105.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 16.9N 105.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 17.3N 106.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 106.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
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