ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 115 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT... SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS SOME STABLE AIR INTRUSION SEEM TO BE HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNING'S 1250Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED NOTHING STRONGER THAN 25 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT BASED OFF OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A QUICKER DEMISE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO FESTER AS A WEAK DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION IN 2 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/6...WITHIN THE SHALLOW EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE MODELS DO INDICATE A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA/NORTHWEST MEXICO WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 105.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.1N 106.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 108.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.8N 109.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Oct-2006 20:20:03 UTC