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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006
800 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
TONIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH A LACK OF DEFINITIVE BANDING FEATURES...
HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... WITH
LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS BEING THE STRONGEST POSITIVE
FACTORS. HOWEVER THE GFDL DOESN'T FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING AND
INSTEAD DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BEYOND 90 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE
GFDL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER THIS SEASON... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A BIT FROM THE LAST
PACKAGE... SHOWING A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE AND A LOWER
PEAK INTENSITY. 
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE WEST TONIGHT AT ABOUT 7 KT
BASED ON A 2212 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO MOST GLOBAL MODELS NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BUILD AND COULD FORCE
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON... BUT IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF MOST
GUIDANCE AS WE'RE NOT READY TO TOTALLY BUY INTO A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION.  IN THE LONGER-RANGE... THE FORECAST IS SPED UP AND FARTHER
SOUTH DUE TO MOST MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING THAN IN THE
EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE BAM MEDIUM/DEEP
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 16.9N 105.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N 108.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 
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