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HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 11(13) 40(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 9(10) 40(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
CULICAN 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 87 7(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 41 18(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 12 14(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
ISLA CLARION 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 187N 1116W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 187N 1116W 50 71 12(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
12 187N 1116W 64 40 12(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
24 205N 1106W 34 11 69(80) 8(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
24 205N 1106W 50 1 40(41) 9(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
24 205N 1106W 64 X 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
36 227N 1091W 34 2 9(11) 49(60) 10(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
36 227N 1091W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
36 227N 1091W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
48 250N 1060W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
48 250N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 250N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75 70 65 30 0 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 02:40:04 UTC