Hurricane PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80
KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 7( 8) 31(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 6( 6) 30(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 25(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 77 17(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 34 38(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 8 31(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 182N 1113W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 182N 1113W 50 74 10(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
12 182N 1113W 64 37 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
24 201N 1104W 34 8 71(79) 8(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
24 201N 1104W 50 1 41(42) 10(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
24 201N 1104W 64 X 16(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
36 222N 1089W 34 2 10(12) 47(59) 10(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
36 222N 1089W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
36 222N 1089W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
48 245N 1065W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
48 245N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 245N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75 70 65 40 0 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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