ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 14(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 17(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 8(37) X(37) X(37) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 39 52(91) 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 56(59) 10(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 32(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 173N 1116W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 173N 1116W 50 80 10(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 12 173N 1116W 64 53 14(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 24 190N 1110W 34 27 61(88) 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 190N 1110W 50 2 53(55) 12(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 24 190N 1110W 64 X 28(28) 10(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 36 213N 1096W 34 1 15(16) 55(71) 8(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) 36 213N 1096W 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) 7(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) 36 213N 1096W 64 X X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 48 233N 1079W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 8(55) X(55) X(55) 48 233N 1079W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) 48 233N 1079W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 270N 1040W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 270N 1040W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 270N 1040W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100 95 80 60 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 14:35:03 UTC