ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 28(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 31(60) 7(67) X(67) X(67)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 15(44) X(44) X(44)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 19 60(79) 4(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 33(34) 7(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA CLARION 34 3 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 172N 1117W 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 172N 1117W 50 72 12(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
12 172N 1117W 64 44 15(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
24 192N 1118W 34 12 71(83) 8(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
24 192N 1118W 50 1 49(50) 12(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
24 192N 1118W 64 X 26(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
36 213N 1106W 34 2 16(18) 52(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
36 213N 1106W 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) 9(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
36 213N 1106W 64 X 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
48 235N 1090W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 34(51) 11(62) X(62) X(62)
48 235N 1090W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23)
48 235N 1090W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
72 275N 1040W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 275N 1040W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 275N 1040W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 80 85 80 70 20 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 02:35:04 UTC