Tropical Storm PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 30(50) X(50) X(50)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 33(48) X(48) X(48)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 19(21) 32(53) 10(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 160N 1100W 34 83 7(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
12 160N 1100W 50 21 11(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
12 160N 1100W 64 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 171N 1110W 34 15 49(64) 10(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
24 171N 1110W 50 X 20(20) 9(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
24 171N 1110W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
36 187N 1114W 34 1 22(23) 33(56) 10(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69)
36 187N 1114W 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
36 187N 1114W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 210N 1110W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 33(47) 12(59) X(59) X(59)
48 210N 1110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24)
48 210N 1110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
72 250N 1080W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30)
72 250N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
72 250N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 60 65 60 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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