Tropical Storm PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 35(44) 4(48) X(48)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 35(43) 5(48) X(48)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 6(33) X(33)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) X(26)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 9(36) X(36)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 12(13) 27(40) 21(61) 7(68) X(68) X(68)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 161N 1091W 34 83 6(89) 1(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
12 161N 1091W 50 19 12(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
12 161N 1091W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 168N 1102W 34 24 43(67) 9(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
24 168N 1102W 50 1 22(23) 7(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
24 168N 1102W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
36 179N 1109W 34 3 28(31) 25(56) 12(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71)
36 179N 1109W 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
36 179N 1109W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
48 199N 1107W 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 29(48) 14(62) 1(63) X(63)
48 199N 1107W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) 1(25) X(25)
48 199N 1107W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
72 245N 1085W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 9(39) X(39)
72 245N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)
72 245N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 290N 1050W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
96 290N 1050W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 290N 1050W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 60 65 65 20 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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