ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 21(29) 12(41) 3(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 154N 1074W 34 32 14(46) 2(48) 3(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) 12 154N 1074W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 12 154N 1074W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 151N 1084W 34 7 28(35) 8(43) 6(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) 24 151N 1084W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 24 151N 1084W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 152N 1092W 34 1 21(22) 14(36) 11(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) 36 152N 1092W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) 36 152N 1092W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 48 160N 1100W 34 1 6( 7) 14(21) 18(39) 12(51) 3(54) X(54) 48 160N 1100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) 48 160N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 180N 1105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 23(38) 9(47) 1(48) 72 180N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) 72 180N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 96 220N 1090W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 6(28) 96 220N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 96 220N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 270N 1030W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 120 270N 1030W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 270N 1030W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 55 65 55 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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