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Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
 
...PAUL ON A WEAKENING TREND...HEADING TOWARD SOCORRO ISLAND...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
ON TUESDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES
...615 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 495
MILES...795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...28.30 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...111.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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